Brent Below $77 as 7 Tankers Cross Hormuz, Unwinding War Premium

For energy market analysts and climate-focused investors, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a double-edged sword: while lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures and could slow the pull of cleaner alternatives, they also reduce incentives for accelerated investment in renewables. The shrinking war premium highlights how quickly geopolitical risk can be priced in—and out—of fossil fuel markets.

On June 23, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil transits — witnessed a dramatic resurgence in shipping activity, with seven tankers openly broadcasting their positions as they navigated the chokepoint. This comes just days after the United States and Iran finalized an interim agreement that has eased months of heightened tensions that had effectively shut down commercial traffic through the Gulf. The development marks a significant turning point for global energy markets, which had been anxiously watching the strait since conflict erupted in late February.

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Before the war, Brent hovered a little under $73, meaning that the bulk of the geopolitical risk premium — estimated at around $4-5 per barrel — has now evaporated.

The reemergence of open signals is a tangible indicator of shipowner confidence. Among the vessels identified on Tuesday, two fully-laden non-Iranian supertankers were departing the Persian Gulf, alongside three product carriers. Two Iran-flagged Suezmaxes approached from the other direction. Additionally, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) entered the Gulf but notably did not broadcast during its passage, reappearing only after it had crossed — a sign that while confidence is growing, some caution remains. Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at data firm Kpler, noted that the shift “reflects a degree of strengthening confidence among shipowners, as Iran is expected to refrain from targeting vessels.” Still, Xu cautioned that “it remains to be seen whether safe and unrestricted passage will indeed materialize.”

The interim deal, struck in mid-June, and subsequent calm have already had a profound impact on oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading below $77 a barrel on Tuesday, a stark contrast to the elevated levels seen during the peak of hostilities. Before the war, Brent hovered a little under $73, meaning that the bulk of the geopolitical risk premium — estimated at around $4-5 per barrel — has now evaporated. Financial markets and oil traders are pinning their hopes on the ongoing negotiations in Switzerland for a permanent settlement, which could further stabilize prices and shipping patterns.

For the global supply chain, the Hormuz reopening is a critical relief. Since late February, millions of barrels of crude oil and liquefied natural gas that typically flow through the strait daily were either rerouted at great expense or bottled up. Insurance premiums for war-risk coverage soared, and some shipowners avoided the area altogether, opting for longer, costlier routes. The resurgence of traffic — and especially the willingness of non-Iranian supertankers to broadcast their presence — suggests that the risk calculus is shifting rapidly. However, the fact that one VLCC chose to go dark during its transit serves as a reminder that the situation remains fluid. Any breakdown in talks or flare-up in violence could reverse these gains overnight.