More 110°F Days: Climate Change Could Ground More Flights, AP Analysis Shows

As global temperatures rise, clear skies are no longer a guarantee of smooth operations. A new AP analysis reveals that cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas are seeing a dramatic increase in days with temperatures exceeding 110°F, precisely the threshold where aircraft performance degrades. For climate observers, this is yet another tangible cost of global warming — one that will directly affect travel, commerce, and infrastructure planning for decades to come.

Airlines and passengers are facing a less visible but growing threat to on-time departures: extreme heat. On July 24, 2026, at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, temperatures soared to 114°F (47°C), forcing American Airlines to seek volunteers to deplane in order to reduce the aircraft's weight for takeoff. While thunderstorms and blizzards are the more familiar culprits of flight delays, high heat is an emerging disruptor — one that aviation experts and climate researchers warn will become increasingly common as global temperatures rise.

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“There is a science behind all this,” said Ross Aimer, a retired United Airlines captain and CEO of Aero Consulting Experts.

The physics is straightforward: hot air is less dense than cool air. Lower air density reduces the lift generated by an aircraft’s wings and diminishes the thrust produced by jet engines, both of which are critical for a safe takeoff. “There is a science behind all this,” said Ross Aimer, a retired United Airlines captain and CEO of Aero Consulting Experts. “You can’t deny the science of flight and what it takes for an airplane to operate.” Airports in hot, low-lying desert cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and those in the Middle East have long grappled with this challenge, but the problem isn’t limited to extreme environments. At higher elevations, where air is already thinner, even moderate heat waves can force weight restrictions. Similarly, airports with shorter runways leave less margin for the longer takeoff rolls required in hot conditions.

When temperatures climb beyond an aircraft’s certified performance envelope, airlines must reduce weight. That often means offloading passengers, cargo, or fuel. In the Las Vegas incident, American Airlines offered compensation to volunteers, a practice that is standard at hot-weather destinations but still disruptive and costly. Cargo flights face an even more pronounced dilemma: every pound of fuel removed to meet weight limits can require an extra refueling stop, adding time and expense to the supply chain. For passenger flights, removing luggage or leaving customers behind not only erodes customer satisfaction but also creates cascading delays across the system.

A historical analysis by the Associated Press finds that Phoenix and Las Vegas are already experiencing significantly more days with temperatures reaching at least 110°F than they did decades ago. This trend is consistent with climate model projections, which point to more frequent and intense heat waves as a direct consequence of human-caused climate change. For aviation, this means the annual number of weight-restricted flights is set to climb. Even a single day of extreme heat can ripple through the network: if a morning flight is delayed due to weight adjustments, subsequent flights using the same aircraft and crew may also be delayed, compounding the economic impact.

The implications for the airline industry and global supply chains are substantial. Air cargo is vital for time-sensitive shipments such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and perishable goods. A reduction in payload capacity — which can range from a few hundred pounds to several thousand pounds on a large jet — effectively lowers the revenue potential per flight while increasing per-unit shipping costs. For logistics providers, this adds uncertainty to delivery schedules, potentially forcing them to build in extra buffer time or shift to ground transportation where feasible. On the passenger side, airlines may need to invest in more powerful aircraft optimized for hot-and-high conditions or reconfigure their fleets to reduce base weight, but these are long-term capital decisions that won’t offer immediate relief.