1.37°C warming: Record renewables still can’t bend climate curve

For climate observers, the renewable energy milestone should have been a turning point—but the latest IGCC data shows it’s a false dawn. With the temperature already at 1.37°C and the carbon budget for 1.5°C nearly spent, the disconnect between cleaning up electricity and tackling total emissions has never been more dangerous. This briefing unpacks why the climate curve refuses to bend and what must happen in the next three years to avert catastrophic overshoot.

The global energy landscape reached a historic turning point in 2025: solar, wind, and hydro collectively surpassed fossil fuels as the world's primary source of power generation. India and China led this expansion, installing massive new renewable capacity and signaling a clear trajectory toward a decarbonized grid. Yet, the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report, published on June 12, 2026 in Earth System Science Data, delivers a sobering counterpoint. Global warming hit 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, inching dangerously close to the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Climate Pact. The paradox is stark: record clean energy adoption is failing to bend the climate curve. At current emission rates, the remaining carbon budget—the total greenhouse gases that can be emitted while maintaining a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C—stands at about 200 billion tonnes of CO2. That budget could be completely depleted in approximately three years, throwing the world into a race against time.

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India and China led this expansion, installing massive new renewable capacity and signaling a clear trajectory toward a decarbonized grid.

The disconnect arises because electricity generation, though crucial, accounts for only a fraction of global emissions. While the power sector is undergoing a rapid transition, large swathes of industry and transport remain shackled to fossil fuels. Heavy manufacturing, cement production, aviation, and shipping rely on high-temperature heat and dense energy carriers that renewables alone cannot easily replace. Green hydrogen, often heralded as the silver bullet for industrial decarbonization, requires massive investment in electrolyzers, renewable electricity to power them, and entirely new infrastructure. These transitions are measured in decades, not years. Meanwhile, the IGCC report makes clear that the world depleted its 2024 carbon budget at a pace faster than any model had anticipated. The implications are dire: if the remaining budget is spent in three years, the 1.5°C goal becomes all but impossible, locking in more severe heatwaves, sea-level rise, and extreme weather. Already, a heatwave sweeping Europe during the mid-year climate talks in Bonn is a visceral reminder of the escalating impacts.