Scotland Faces 18,000 Offshore Job Losses by 2035 Without Green Transition

For climate and energy professionals, the North-east Scotland case offers a real-world stress test of a just energy transition. With up to 1,600 fossil fuel jobs at risk annually over the next decade, the region's ability to reskill workers and attract renewable investment will demonstrate whether the promise of green jobs can match the scale of the climate challenge. The next five years are critical — not just for Scotland, but as a template for fossil-fuel-dependent regions globally.

The Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University has delivered a stark yet opportunistic diagnosis for North-east Scotland’s energy future. A new report, published on June 22, 2026, warns that the region — once the undisputed oil capital of Europe — is entering a critical five-year ‘Goldilocks zone’ where the managed decline of its dominant oil and gas workforce must be precisely matched by accelerated growth in renewables. Without this balance, up to 18,000 offshore energy jobs could evaporate by 2035, translating to roughly 1,600 losses per year and potentially crippling a regional economy long synonymous with North Sea hydrocarbon extraction.

“

North-east Scotland currently hosts about one in three of the UK’s 115,000 offshore oil and gas jobs and one in four of the broader 154,000 offshore energy positions.

The numbers are striking. North-east Scotland currently hosts about one in three of the UK’s 115,000 offshore oil and gas jobs and one in four of the broader 154,000 offshore energy positions. A staggering 90% of its regional offshore workforce is tied to oil and gas, with only 10% in renewables. The report projects a dramatic reversal: by 2035, between 55% and 70% of those jobs could sit in the green energy sector. This is not merely a demographic shift; it represents the wholesale re-engineering of a labour market built over five decades. The ‘Goldilocks’ framing captures the precariousness — too slow on renewables and jobs vanish; too fast on oil’s decline and the skilled workforce scatters before new roles materialise. Professor Paul de Leeuw, the Institute’s director, did not mince words: “It is very much entering a make-or-break period.”

Underpinning this transition is an undeniable market pull: Europe’s target of 300 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2050, with the UK pinpointed as one of five nations expected to deliver the bulk. For North-east Scotland, this is not a distant abstraction. The region’s deep-water engineering expertise, subsea infrastructure, and decades of heavy-industry logistics make it a natural launchpad for offshore wind — and increasingly for green hydrogen. De Leeuw envisions a “world class, multi-energy hub”, but realising that vision demands immediate, coordinated action. The report tacitly critiques the status quo, where policy uncertainty and stop-start investment cycles risk frittering away the very skills the transition needs: turbine technicians, cable layers, maintenance engineers, and project managers who already understand harsh marine environments.