100% Tariff on Russian Oil Could Force India’s Energy Transition—or Boost Coal

Climate advocates are watching the US Senate's latest sanctions bill closely: by threatening 100% tariffs on Russian oil importers, Washington is using trade policy to choke off revenues funding Moscow's war—but the climate implications are complex. For India, which has become a hub for refining Russian crude, the bill could either force a clean energy pivot or lock the country into dirtier, cheaper alternatives. As the world's third-largest emitter, India's energy choices have global climate significance, and this bill could be a catalyst for change—or a roadblock to the transition.

On August 7, 2026, the United States Senate passed the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act by an overwhelming 86-11 bipartisan vote, authorizing President Donald Trump to levy tariffs of up to 100% on goods from countries, including India and China, that continue importing Russian oil and gas. The legislation aims to escalate economic pressure on Moscow by targeting nations that maintain significant energy trade ties, effectively using secondary sanctions to choke off the revenues funding Russia's war in Ukraine. Just four days later, on August 11, US Presidential Counsellor Peter Navarro struck a conciliatory tone, stating that President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have a 'very good working relationship' and would resolve the tariff issue bilaterally. Navarro acknowledged that prior to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, India had virtually no involvement in the Russian oil trade, but afterward became a major importer and refiner of discounted Russian crude, selling refiend products that 'helped feed the war machine.' He added that 'that issue has been resolved,' though the nature of any prior resolution remains unclear.

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Since Western sanctions were imposed, India has emerged as a critical outlet for Russian crude, purchasing barrels at discounts of $20–$30 to Brent.

The two developments—legislative hard power and diplomatic soft power—capture the delicate balancing act facing the world's largest democracy. Since Western sanctions were imposed, India has emerged as a critical outlet for Russian crude, purchasing barrels at discounts of $20–$30 to Brent. Indian refiners, including Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, have processed this crude into gasoline, diesel, and other products, many of which found their way to markets in Europe and the United States, effectively circumventing sanctions. This refining-for-export model has drawn sharp criticism from Washington and Kyiv, with Navarro's op-ed in the Financial Times around January 2026 explicitly calling out the practice.

The bill, named after the late Senator Lindsey Graham, does not automatically impose tariffs but grants the president broad authority to do so. If fully enforced against India, a 100% tariff on all Indian goods would be economically devastating: bilateral trade in goods exceeded $120 billion in 2025, with Indian exports to the US at roughly $80 billion, spanning pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering goods, and petroleum products. Even a targeted tariff on refined petroleum products—already subject to some US import duties—could force Indian refiners to seek alternative markets, disrupting global product flows and potentially adding to fuel price inflation in importing regions.