Market Trends Neutral 6

Gas Hits 2022 Highs as Qatar Reopens Hormuz LNG Route

Qatar is moving LNG through the Strait of Hormuz again, but flows remain far below the pre-war level of about a fifth of global supply, even as European and Asian gas prices hit their highest since 2022. The tight market raises the risk of coal-switching in power generation, complicating emissions goals heading into winter.

· 5 min read · Verified by 2 sources ·

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Climate briefing

Key takeaways

6 impact
Neutralsentiment
2sources
5min read
  1. Qatar is moving LNG through the Strait of Hormuz again, but flows remain far below the pre-war level of about a fifth of global supply, even as European and Asian gas prices hit their highest since 2022.
  2. The tight market raises the risk of coal-switching in power generation, complicating emissions goals heading into winter.
Drawn from
  • gCaptain
  • Bloomberg

In this briefing

Mentioned

Key Intelligence

Key Facts

  1. 1At least four laden Qatari LNG carriers were sent out through the Strait of Hormuz in the week to Sept. 24, 2026 — the highest in more than two months — with at least two more moving inbound into the Persian Gulf.
  2. 2One of the newly dispatched shipments arrived at India's west coast on Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026.
  3. 3No AIS signals were detected from five of the vessels during their Hormuz transit, with jamming and interference complicating efforts to verify ship locations.
  4. 4Before the war, Hormuz handled about a fifth of global LNG supply, or roughly three shipments a day; current traffic remains far below that level.
  5. 5European and Asian gas prices have surged to their highest levels since 2022 in the run-up to winter.
  6. 6Qatar largely halted Hormuz LNG exports in early July 2026 after one of its vessels was attacked, and has since loaded LNG onto empty tankers inside the gulf and exported some fuel to Kuwait to manage storage.
  7. 7Qatar is partially mirroring the shuttling tactic used by Persian Gulf oil producers, though ship-to-ship transfer of super-chilled LNG is far more technically difficult than for crude.
Pre-war share of global LNG supply via Hormuz
~1/5 now far below ~3 ships/day

Partial resumption still leaves the chokepoint a systemic winter-supply risk

Winter gas supply outlook

Analysis

For climate and energy readers, the story is not just about tankers — it is about what a militarized chokepoint does to the energy transition. With gas prices at their highest since 2022 and Hormuz flows still far below the roughly three-shipments-a-day pre-war norm, the scramble for winter supply threatens to push generators back toward coal. At the same time, the disruption strengthens the case for renewable generation and storage that never has to transit a contested strait.

Qatar has resumed sending liquefied natural gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz at the highest rate in more than two months, dispatching at least four laden carriers through the waterway in the week to Sept. 24, 2026, while at least two vessels moved in the opposite direction into the Persian Gulf, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The increase marks the most sustained Qatari LNG traffic through the strait since early July, when the country largely halted exports after one of its vessels was attacked. One of the newly dispatched cargoes arrived at India's west coast on Thursday, Sept. 24, confirming that physical deliveries to Asian buyers have restarted even as security risks persist.

Qatar has resumed sending liquefied natural gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz at the highest rate in more than two months, dispatching at least four laden carriers through the waterway in the week to Sept.

The scale of the resumption is modest but strategically significant. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of global LNG supply — about three shipments a day. Current traffic remains far below that benchmark, yet even a partial reopening matters because European and Asian benchmark gas prices have surged to their highest levels since 2022 as winter demand builds. Every incremental Qatari cargo through Hormuz relieves marginal supply pressure, but the disruption has already embedded a substantial security premium into freight rates, insurance, and delivered prices that will not unwind quickly.

The operational detail in the data underscores how fragile the corridor remains. No signals were detected from five of the vessels while they transited Hormuz. AIS jamming and interference are common in the area, complicating efforts to verify ship locations and creating genuine commercial consequences: charterers, insurers, and buyers cannot fully track cargoes, which forces risk pricing higher and complicates compliance and financing for each voyage. Qatar also appears to be adapting a tactic borrowed from Persian Gulf oil producers known as shuttling — moving cargoes through the strait on one vessel before transferring them to another in the Gulf of Oman. But shuttling is far more difficult for LNG than for crude, because ship-to-ship transfer of a super-chilled fuel at roughly minus 162 degrees Celsius poses major technical and safety challenges. Instead, Qatar has been loading LNG onto available empty tankers inside the gulf and exporting some volumes to Kuwait, a maneuver aimed at managing storage and keeping parts of its production network running while export logistics remain constrained.

For global supply chains, the episode is a case study in chokepoint dependency and inventory management under duress. Hormuz has long been the single point of failure for a large slice of the world's energy trade, but the war has converted a theoretical vulnerability into a daily, priced reality. Qatar's willingness to resume transits while keeping AIS signals dark reflects a calculated trade-off between moving volume and masking movements from hostile observation. The arrival of a cargo at India's west coast is concrete evidence the corridor is partially reopening, but volumes remain far too small to meaningfully rebuild European storage or cap Asian spot prices before the peak heating season. For Asian importers such as India, South Korea, and Japan, the return of even a handful of Qatari cargoes offers modest relief, but they remain exposed to elevated spot prices and may accelerate efforts to diversify suppliers and secure long-term contracts whose routes avoid contested waters.

What to Watch

The climate and energy implications cut both ways. A tight LNG market pushes power generators toward coal and delays gas-to-coal switching, which raises emissions at exactly the moment policymakers want to accelerate decarbonization. At the same time, the security-driven disruption of one of the world's cheapest-to-ship gas routes strengthens the strategic argument for domestically produced renewable generation, battery storage, and energy supplies that do not transit a militarized chokepoint. The scramble for gas is a reminder of how deeply the early stages of the energy transition still depend on fossil-fuel logistics.

Looking ahead, the decisive questions are whether the ramp-up proves durable or opportunistic, whether insurers and flag states continue to tolerate AIS-dark transits, and whether the shuttling model can eventually be extended to LNG as wartime operations mature. If Qatar can sustain even one additional shipment per day through Hormuz, it would materially soften the winter price spike; if the increase is interrupted by another attack, the risk premium will reassert itself sharply. The coming weeks, as winter demand accelerates and storage draws begin, will reveal whether this is the start of a sustained normalization or merely a brief window of tolerance in a still-dangerous waterway.

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Cite This Page

"Gas Hits 2022 Highs as Qatar Reopens Hormuz LNG Route." Climate Intelligence Brief, September 25, 2026. https://getclimatebrief.com/story/qatar-hormuz-lng-winter-gas-climate-risk

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