Cat 3 Lowell: Hawaii's 3rd Storm in 3 Weeks Tests El Niño Resilience

For climate and energy professionals, this is not just another storm—it is a stress test. Hawaii's third tropical cyclone in just over three weeks, driven by El Niño-warmed Pacific waters and shifting steering patterns, exposes the islands to a lengthening and intensifying hurricane season. Lowell's 120 mph winds may stay 110 to 150 miles offshore, but the trajectory and frequency raise urgent questions about grid hardening, coastal adaptation, and the pace of the state's clean-energy transition.

Hurricane Lowell's final turn toward Hawaii marks the third tropical cyclone threat to the state in just over three weeks, a pattern consistent with an El Niño-supercharged Pacific hurricane season. As of Sunday, September 6, 2026, the National Hurricane Center placed Kauai and Niihau under tropical storm warnings, with winds over 39 mph expected within 36 hours. Lowell was a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, moving north at 6 mph. Although the storm was forecast to weaken to near Category 2 strength at closest approach, its center was projected to pass within about 110 miles west of Niihau and 150 miles west of Kauai from late Monday night through Tuesday morning. That track keeps the core's most destructive winds offshore, but tropical-storm-force winds, mountain-accelerated hurricane gusts, dangerous surf, and heavy rain will still affect the western islands.

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Hurricane Lowell's final turn toward Hawaii marks the third tropical cyclone threat to the state in just over three weeks, a pattern consistent with an El Niño-supercharged Pacific hurricane season.

For several days Lowell had been trapped under a weak upper-level high-pressure system that steered it west and kept it south of Hawaii. That shield weakened over the weekend as a cold trough from the north Pacific interacted with a nearby area of low pressure, allowing Lowell to make a dramatic right turn northward. The setup draws comparisons to 1992's Hurricane Iniki, which struck Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane and remains Hawaii's worst storm on record. However, current forecasts keep Lowell offshore enough to avoid a direct hit. Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the state as a precautionary measure.

The frequency of threats is striking: three named storms in roughly three weeks. El Niño conditions warm the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, reducing vertical wind shear and boosting sea surface temperatures in the main development region. That translates into more numerous and stronger hurricanes in the central Pacific, and Hawaii's geographic position makes it vulnerable when steering patterns shift. Even near-misses can produce damaging surf, coastal road flooding, landslides, and power outages. For climate and energy stakeholders, the storm underscores the islands' exposure and the importance of decentralized clean energy, microgrids, battery storage, and hardened transmission infrastructure.