Brent Holds Near $85 as Hormuz Flows Recover to 8M b/d

For climate and energy strategists, Hormuz is a live case study in fossil-fuel dependency and security risk. Even with flows barely half prewar volumes and attacks continuing, the global benchmark remains near $85 a barrel—showing how little slack the transition has built into oil supply. The rise of outside-Hormuz collection points may reduce physical transit risk, but it entrenches the same high-carbon infrastructure rather than accelerating alternatives.

Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are creeping higher, with oil traders estimating that between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day are now transiting the world’s most important oil chokepoint as of Aug. 27, 2026. That remains roughly half of prewar levels after July’s Iranian attacks on supertankers broke an interim ceasefire, but it marks a meaningful recovery in regional export capacity. The increase is helping to keep global crude prices in check: Brent futures were near $85 a barrel, according to freight analyst Georgios Sakellariou of Signal, despite the precarious security situation.

“

The increase is helping to keep global crude prices in check: Brent futures were near $85 a barrel, according to freight analyst Georgios Sakellariou of Signal, despite the precarious security situation.

The rebound is not a simple return to prewar operations. It is being enabled by a structural adaptation in how Persian Gulf crude reaches global markets. A batch of tankers is now doing shuttle runs, hauling barrels to just outside the Persian Gulf, where cargoes are transferred to larger tankers that remain unwilling to transit the strait themselves. According to oil traders involved in and monitoring cargo activity, every major regional supplier except Iran is now selling its barrels for collection outside Hormuz. That is a significant change in the physical oil market: it shifts the point of sale, adds a layer of freight and logistics cost, and effectively creates a two-tier export system.

The economics of this adaptation are being supported by the highest earnings in supertanker market history. For some shipowners, that record income is enough to offset the very real hazard demonstrated on Monday, Aug. 24, when two freighters were struck, according to the UK navy. The security situation remains precarious, and estimates of Hormuz volumes are wide-ranging and volatile. Some trackers and US officials have suggested even higher flows than the 6 million to 8 million figure, underscoring how quickly the situation can change.

From a market perspective, the rising flows matter because even a partial recovery at this chokepoint is enough to cap prices near $85. Sakellariou captured the delicate balance: “In the last few days, more oil seems to be coming out of Hormuz. If it’s sustainable, crude oil prices will stay down, although recently that has still meant something close to $85 a barrel.” That is still historically high and reflects a durable war-risk premium. If the ramp-up proves sustainable, it would put downward pressure on crude. But sustainability is far from assured. Each attack or ceasefire collapse could reverse the gains, and the shuttle system itself is exposed to the same treacherous waters.