35% chance 2026 breaks all-time heat record as El Niño strengthens, scientists warn

For climate and energy professionals, the evolution of 2026's heat trajectory is a critical signal: it demonstrates that even record-setting past years are just stepping stones. The near-certainty that 2027 will break the record by a wide margin means that planning for extreme weather, energy grid strain, and carbon transition must move from contingency to core strategy. The latest odds from Berkeley Earth — surging from 7% to 35% in four months — highlight how quickly the risk landscape is shifting.

Despite a summer marked by intense wildfires across North America and Europe, lethal heat waves parked over major cities, and ocean temperatures at record highs for this time of year, 2026 so far only ranks as the third-hottest year globally, trailing 2024 and 2025. But scientists warn this lull is deceptive: a strengthening El Niño is projected to be off-the-charts in magnitude, and when its full warming influence kicks in later this year and into 2027, the planet is likely to shatter existing heat records, perhaps by a wide margin. The one-two punch of accelerated human-caused climate change and a supersized El Niño has raised the odds that 2026 could edge out 2024 as the hottest year on record, with 2027 almost guaranteed to be even hotter.

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Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, has been steadily increasing his estimate for 2026 to surpass 2024, moving from just 7% in March to 35% by early August.

Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, has been steadily increasing his estimate for 2026 to surpass 2024, moving from just 7% in March to 35% by early August. He notes that the odds keep rising nearly every month as the El Niño intensifies. Former NASA climate scientist James Hansen, sometimes called the godfather of climate science, predicts that 2026 will indeed beat 2024. The world’s oceans, covering over 70% of the Earth’s surface, tied the 2024 daily sea surface temperature record beginning in May and have been breaking that record almost every day since June, adding immense heat to the global system. Ocean heat typically has a lag of about a month and a half, meaning its full influence on global air temperatures is yet to be felt.

The context is one of accelerating warming rates. The last few years have already been record-setters: 2024 and 2025 both pushed the boundaries of global average temperatures, fueled largely by greenhouse gas emissions. Now, with an El Niño event that may rival or exceed the 2015–2016 super El Niño, the combination could push the planet into uncharted territory. Hausfather’s 35% chance reflects not only the current conditions but also the inherent uncertainty in how quickly the El Niño will peak and how long its effects will persist. Even if 2026 falls short, the near-lock for 2027 means that within two years, the world will almost certainly experience a new annual heat record.

The implications extend far beyond statistics. Extreme heat events already kill thousands each year, damage crops, strain power grids, and fuel larger and more unpredictable wildfires. The ongoing record ocean heat is bleaching coral reefs, disrupting marine ecosystems, and altering fisheries. These impacts cascade into economic losses, supply chain disruptions, and public health crises. The fact that these extremes are occurring even before the El Niño’s full force — and with global average temperatures only temporarily paused at third place — signals that the planet’s baseline has been shifted upward by anthropogenic warming. As Hausfather underscores, “It’s going to keep getting worse.”