Africa’s Local Solar Capacity Reaches 300 MW as $66B Chinese Investment Looms

For the climate community, Africa’s solar manufacturing ambitions represent a make-or-break moment in the global energy transition. The continent’s abundant sunshine and massive energy access gap mean that cheap solar panels can leapfrog fossil fuels, but overreliance on Chinese supplies creates supply chain risks that could stall the rollout just as it accelerates. As local industries in Nigeria, South Africa and elsewhere try to mature, the core tension is clear: how to decarbonize at speed without sacrificing long-term industrial resilience and the green jobs that sustain political support for climate action.

Africa’s largest economies are accelerating a push to build domestic solar manufacturing, a strategic pivot that industry analysts say balances industrial ambition with mounting unease over the continent’s dependency on Chinese imports. South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco and Ethiopia are stepping up efforts to localize everything from basic module assembly to more advanced manufacturing, responding to structural shifts in power markets, persistent energy shortages and the need to bring electricity to underserved populations. But the shadow of China looms large. Chinese renewable energy investment and related construction projects in Africa reached $66 billion between 2010 and 2024, according to think tank ODI Global, while a glut in Chinese production has sent solar cell and component exports soaring worldwide. Olena Borodyna, a senior geopolitical risk advisor at ODI Global, frames the tension succinctly: “Growing economies, coupled with recent energy shortages in countries like Zambia and the ongoing need to provide access to underserved populations, make it a perfect market for China to channel its overcapacity in the sector.”

“

Nigeria’s annual solar imports, largely from China, now rival those of South Africa, underscoring the scale of the market and the dual-track reality in which local assembly expands alongside heavy reliance on external supply.

The most concrete evidence of this homegrown shift comes from Nigeria, where local solar panel assembly capacity has more than doubled in just two years, rising from roughly 120 megawatts to approximately 300 megawatts. Nigeria’s annual solar imports, largely from China, now rival those of South Africa, underscoring the scale of the market and the dual-track reality in which local assembly expands alongside heavy reliance on external supply. In South Africa, utility Eskom has plans to develop a 1-gigawatt solar manufacturing facility, a move aimed at capturing more value from one of the world’s fastest-growing solar markets. If realized, the plant would mark a major step up the value chain for a continent that has largely remained a consumer of finished solar products.

The drive for self-reliance is deeply intertwined with Africa’s broader energy transition narrative. With over 600 million people lacking access to electricity, solar presents the most scalable path to decarbonization and economic development. Domestic manufacturing promises local jobs, technology transfer and more resilient supply chains, insulating countries from the commodity price swings and logistical disruptions that can accompany overreliance on a single supplier. Yet the economics remain daunting. China’s massive scale and integrated supply chains mean it can produce solar panels at per-unit costs that nascent African factories cannot match. The risk is that cheap Chinese exports undercut local manufacturers, pushing them out of business just as they begin to scale. This classic “green industrial policy” dilemma – whether to protect infant industries or embrace the cheapest path to clean energy – is playing out acutely across the continent.